Description: Segment 1 Opening titles and opening quotations from Roger Bacon, Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz and Karl Pearson regarding the relationship between Mathematics and the sciences. Prof. Card introduces the subject of developing a mathematical structure of medicine. He says that in 1975, there were 55 million people in Britain and an NHS budget of 3 billion pounds. He suggests using decision theory to deploy resources to their best advantage. A chart is shown with an example of a decision tree. He suggests thinking of patients as sets of 'symptoms, signs, radiological and laboratory data'. A definition of 'indicant', a word that covers all of these, is shown. A case study of dyspepsia is discussed, and an indicant is shown. Time start: 00:00:00:00 Time end: 00:04:30:00 Length: 00:04:30:00 Segment 2 Card continues to discus the case study, emphasising the need for taking the patient's history without forgetting anything. A patient is seen being asked questions by a computer. Card discusses how this method was developed. A voiceover is heard discussing whether patients are favourable to being interrogated by computers rather than doctors. He says that they feel that computer interrogation is the future. Another patient is seen on the telephone answering questions asked by a computer. Time start: 00:04:30:00 Time end: 00:09:43:00 Length: 00:05:13:00 Segment 3 Card continues to discuss diagnosing dyspepsia. He also discusses the need for grading illnesses such as has been done for dyspnoea. He then talks about allocating patients to a 'disease class' once a history has been taken. He also talks about assigning patients to 'treatment classes'. He mentions typhoid fever as an example of a disease that has clear defining characteristics. However, classification can be problematic. Time start: 00:09:43:00 Time end: 00:14:06:20 Length: 00:04:23:20 Segment 4 Abstract images are shown as Card discusses how patients can be characterised in two dimensions but that diseases work in multi-dimensional spaces. He then shows an example of 'cluster analysis' of a group of patients. An example of logical analysis of disease is shown to see if proctocolitis can be separated from Crohn's disease. A biological tree is shown which is used to identify different species. Card then discusses how 'optimal trees' can be used in medicine to diagnose illnesses and determine the probability of a disease in a patient. Time start: 00:14:06:20 Time end: 00:19:58:00 Length: 00:05:52:05 Segment 6 Card discusses the importance of error rates in logical diagnosis. A table is shown, displaying error rates of three consultants and a computer diagnosing the same patient. He discusses the data in relation to error rates. He then talks about the effects of error rates on the evidence doctors try to collect. He discusses how to measure weight of evidence and uses a case study of a patient with gastrointestinal problems. He also discusses how to plot the loss of weight of evidence against error rates with the aid of some mathematical charts. Time start: 00:25:37:00 Time end: 00:31:28:22 Length: 00:05:51:22. Segment 7 Card talks about how people recognise patterns. He says that symptoms are also a pattern, and shows a list of symptoms, asking the audience to diagnose carcinoma of the head of the pancreas from them. He then discusses how to analyse pattern recognition using the concept of dependent probabilities. He explains independence using a film of playing cards and dice and then discusses independent and dependent probabilities in relation to symptoms in a patient. Time start: 00:31:28:22 Time end: 00:38:23:06 Length: 00:06:54:09